The massive bomb which killed Lebanon’s likely next army chief, Brig. Gen. Francois Hajj, has raised many questions. At first glance it would appear to be revenge killing by Fatah al-Islam, the Al Qaeda aided Muslim outfit that was hounded out from the Palestine camp of Nahr al-Bared by the Lebanese army this summer.
But Middle East politics has never been that simple. There are wheels within wheels. Moreover, the killing has to be seen with reference to the stalled presidential elections in Lebanon.
It was beginning to appear that all the parties were agreeing on Gen. Michel Suleiman, commander of the Lebanese Army, as the compromise candidate. The explosion is an attempt to break this emerging agreement.
After the bombing those elements in Lebanese politics that have always been wary of Syria, are likely to rethink on their decision to go along with other parties for the new president. The aim behind the killing of Brig. Gen. Francois Hajj was to weaken Lebanon. The army is considered its strongest institution. Fatah al-Islam would love to see it shaken. Syria [along with its masters in Iran] would like to see it weaken, so that its influence could increase in the unstable country. Hezbollah could be the culprit too as the Lebanese army is the only force that can stand up to its fighters.
Some elements in Lebanon are also pointing their accusing finger at Israel. But this is unlikely. Israel would hardly like to strike at the army in Lebanon and make things easier for its arch enemy, Hezbollah.
The strongest possibility is that the Al Qaeda is behind the bombing. It has used its agents in Lebanon, Fatah al-Islam, to do the dirty work. And it has succeeded to a large extent. It has struck at Lebanon’s main strength- the army, and has once again created political uncertainty in the country.
