The more one reads about the status quo that is existing over the future of Kosovo presently, one tends to believe that the issue has somewhat been blown overboard by the high-profile presence of the United States and Russia with completely opposite interests. The matter has become so complicated that the United Nations has admitted of being unable to come to an amicable resolution. So now what? It looks like the Kosovars would go ahead with their planned independence declaration from Serbia. It may sound easy enough but the repurcussions of such a move at this stage are uncertain as well as threatening not just for the Balkans but for Europe as a whole.

This is not the era of the late Slobodan Milosevic and that Serbia has lost its political might which the erstwhile Yugoslavia used to possess but still Serbs have enough nationalism and pride to desperately prevent the country breaking up further. When it comes to the question of Kosovo’s status, Belgrade cannot afford to accept the war-ravaged province as outside the Serbian jurisdiction. Over the past few months, the issue has attained unwanted importance for the simple fact that Washington and Moscow has taken it up as a matter of regional supremacy. Russia with its traditional ties to Serbia does not want a Kosovo independence which would then mean a victory for American influence near Moscow’s vicinity and vice-versa.

Despite Russian and Serbian efforts to block any independence, it looks as if the EU and the US would make Pristina declare independence early next year. But a host of uncertainties would remain in the event of an independence declaration. What would be the reaction of the minority Serb population after a Kosovo independence? What would be the Serbian action plan? Can poor and impoverished Kosovo be able to handle the rigours of Balkan and international politics? Would the Balkans return to violent days even if there is a strong UN and EU presence in the region? How far Moscow would go in stalling the European and American plans? These critical questions would get answered only in the coming days given the political puzzle that exists in the region.

What is clear at the moment is that the longer the uncertainty over Kosovo remains, there is a growing threat of a regional security crisis. If independence is the ultimate solution, the international community should ensure a peaceful transition with adequate protection for the vulnerable Serbian minority.

Source Link: IHT
Image Link: BBC 155084