The US government is trumpeting the fact that violence is going down in Iraq; that Bush’s ’surge’ has worked. The Iraqi government is boasting that the situation in the country has improved so much that those Iraqis who had fled from Iraq are coming back! But, a deeper look at the situation reveals shows that nothing has changed much.
It is true that bombings and fighting in Iraq has gone down. But there is every chance it will start once again in full earnest. One of the reasons why Gen. Petraeus has been able to show down sliding violence graphs of Iraq is that Shia strongman Moqtada al-Sadr has declared ceasefire. He has ordered his followers to take a break. The Sunni militias have followed suit.
Now the result is much publicized ‘miracle’ in Anbar. It may turn out to be a curse. The Sunnis here have agreed to join hands with the Americans because they want to brush up their military skills and strengthen their own militias so that they can take on Shia militias in near future. Moreover, the fact is that most people in Anbar are poor and desperation will drive them to join Al Qaeda just for the sake of sheer survival.
Now, as Iraqi government’s claims about its citizens returning, one of the reasons is that countries like Syria and Jordan who had been very hospitable till now are feeling the pinch of hosting so many Iraqis and have started taking measures that make it impossible for the refugees to stay on. Left with no other options, they are coming back to Iraq.
US has only applied military solutions in Iraq till now [surge, arming of Sunnis in Anbar] and that alone will not solve anything. No political initiatives seem to be working. There has been no reconciliation of Shias and Sunnis. Only when they agree to sit together and hammer out a political compromise, will a stable Iraq emerge. At present the country is a mere hotchpotch of militias of different communities, under the watchful eyes of Gen. Petraeus and his men.
